I was having a conversation with a Senior Program Manager at Microsoft Azure over lunch today. His words quite stuck with me:
โI sit at the heart of it. I have access to what is being created. The advancements in efficiency are JARRING. None of us are prepared for what is ahead.โ
I had to write his words to feel them.
We Built the Perfect Machine
We did it! We built the (near) Perfect Machine.
Thereโs a quiet irony to it all. Capitalism: the engine that scaled innovation, accelerated globalization, and maximized productivity, may be evolving into a version of itself that no longer needs us to function.
For decades, weโve rewarded efficiency. We built faster, cheaper, smarter systems. We celebrated disruption and trained an entire generation to chase lean operations and margin gains. And now… we have (kind of) succeeded. The machine runs smoothly. Too smoothly, perhaps. Because labor… the one thing capitalism once depended on… is quietly becoming obsolete.
Over the past few months, Iโve been reflecting on this shift. In New York, working at the UN, the focus was on access and equity. In Redmond, at Microsoft, the focus leans toward efficiency and acceleration. Both perspectives are important, but neither feels fully prepared for whatโs unfolding.
At some point, the question is no longer how many jobs AI will replace. The question becomes: What do we do when most jobs are gone?
I quote the Axios article:
Amodei (founder of Anthropic AI) and others fear the white-collar bloodbath is unfolding:
- OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and other large AI companies keep vastly improving the capabilities of their large language models (LLMs) to meet and beat human performance with more and more tasks. This is happening and accelerating.
- The U.S. government, worried about losing ground to China or spooking workers with preemptive warnings, says little. The administration and Congress neither regulate AI nor caution the American public. This is happening and showing no signs of changing.
- Most Americans, unaware of the growing power of AI and its threat to their jobs, pay little attention. This is happening, too.
And then, almost overnight, business leaders see the savings of replacing humans with AI โ and do this en masse. They stop opening up new jobs, stop backfilling existing ones, and then replace human workers with agents or related automated alternatives.
- The public only realizes it when it’s too late.
The Invisible Curve: Efficiency vs. Employment
For most of modern history, economic growth meant job creation. Roads needed builders. Schools needed teachers. Factories needed workers. Work created income. Income gave us value.
But… whether we like it or not… we are in a new wave now.
Todayโs growth doesnโt need as many people. I can speak for myself: work that once needed est 30 people in my companies can now, with help of the agentic web, be performed by simply… me (and my AI agents).
Machines donโt take breaks.
Algorithms donโt negotiate.
Optimization is no longer labor-intensive.
Each round of efficiency makes the case for less human intervention.
We are building economies that grow, without needing people to grow them.
Who Owns the Machines?
If labor no longer drives value, ownership becomes the central question.
The most powerful individuals in todayโs world donโt necessarily run governments or factories. They own data, models, platforms, and infrastructure. They manage APIs and orchestrate cloud systems. The levers of wealth have shifted.
And that brings us here: What happens when nearly everything is monetized, but almost no one is paid?
From Wages to Welfare: The Rise of the Post-Labor State
I… every once in a while, think as what I am supposed to be: an Economist.
There will come a time when the machine is simply too efficient to ignore. And when that time comes, governments will have to step in. Not to slow the machine down, but to keep people alive and thriving.
This will not be about politics. It will be about survival.
Universal Basic Income. Sovereign AI funds. Publicly owned tech infrastructure. What once sounded radical is becoming realistic. The state will take on new roles: redistributing income in a world where wages no longer work.
Capitalism may continue, but only by becoming dependent on something it once resisted.
Beyond Work: Reimagining Human Purpose
If your paycheck no longer defines your worth, what does?
This is where my personal life meets my intellectual path. I come from a world where value wasnโt tied to formal work. In Malawi, I saw grandmothers passing down oral histories. Teenagers fixing radios. Men sitting by the roadside offering advice like currency. They arenโt formally employed, but they matter.
In the future, that kind of presence might return, as necessity.
Creative labor. Community building. Teaching. Caregiving. Emotional intelligence. These roles have always mattered. The difference now is that the world will begin to value them, because machines wonโt be able to replicate them with meaning.
We will not need to be productive to be valuable. We might in our lifetime stand a chance at needing to be so deeply human.
From Capitalism to Coordination
The next evolution of automation is not just about replacing workers. Itโs about replacing managers.
I was SHOCKED to learn that of the 6,000 laid off my Microsoft in the most recent round, some were VPs and Directors. Two of the people who were involved in hiring me: two people I got to connect with on my very first day at Microsoft, were laid off the day after. It literally sent a chill down my spine.
Platforms now adjust supply chains automatically. Content curates itself. Operations run on autopilot. Leadership, too, is being influenced by real-time insights and predictive tools that get more accurate by the day.
The future might not be classically socialist. But it will be coordinated.
We will need governance systems that can handle what we donโt fully understand. And that means designing with ethics, rights, and accountability at the center.
Weโre Not Ready… But Weโre Here.
Yesterday, President Obama posted his reflection:
He is right. The shift is no longer hypothetical. But, perhaps unlike you, I am not scared.
I still believe in AI. I believe in my soul that this had to happen in human history, precisely as it is happening now. I believe AI has the potential to unlock unprecedented progress. But I also know that progress without direction is dangerous.
And my most favourite advancement in AI lately is in the growing accuracy of prediction of the models.
Mustafa Suleyman (Microsoft AI CEO), said something that struck a chord:
As many conversations I have had with the best of the best about AI and the (possible) future of our world: I do not know what comes next.
But… I believe weโve already crossed the threshold. The question isnโt whether this future will come. Itโs whether weโll be bold enough to build it, wisely.
with anticipation,
Ntha
PART 2: The Economics of the Endgame
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